I'm Thomas, a forecaster focused on AI progress. I trade on Manifold Markets as @Bayesian — currently #1 on the AI topic leaderboard (about 3.3× the #2 trader) and #2 all-time by profit, Sharpe 1.17. My specialty is model releases, benchmarks, and compute / scaling trends.
I'm a research consultant at Nascent, doing independent forecasting and quantitative AI research. Earlier in 2026 I wrote questions, resolution criteria, and SOTA / human-performance baselines for the 2026 AI Forecasting Survey as a contractor for Sage Future. Before that, I co-developed AlignmentSearch, a retrieval-augmented system over the Alignment Research Dataset, for aisafety.info.
On the side I run bayesianbot, a cross-venue arbitrage bot copy-trading Polymarket prices into Manifold (Sharpe 2.21 over 506 resolved markets).
I'm finishing a BSc in Mathematics and Computer Science at McGill, in Montreal. Most of what I write here will be about whatever I'm forecasting at the moment — model releases, benchmark interpretation, and the occasional thing that has nothing to do with any of that.